Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics

Droughts are among the most relevant natural disasters related to climate change. We evaluated different regional climate model outputs and their ability to reproduce observed drought indices in Germany and its near surroundings between 1980–2009. Both outputs of an ensemble of six EURO-CORDEX models of 12.5 km grid resolution and outputs from a high-resolution (5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) run were employed. The latter model was especially tailored for the study region regarding the physics configuration. We investigated drought-related variables and derived the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-3) to account for meteorological droughts. Based on that, we analyzed correlations, the 2003 event, trends and drought characteristics (frequency, duration and severity) and compared the results to E-OBS. Methods used include Taylor diagrams, the Mann–Kendall trend test and the spatial efficiency (SPAEF) metric to account for spatial agreement of patterns. Averaged over the domain, meteorological droughts were found to occur approximately 16 times in the study period with an average duration of 3.1 months and average severity of 1.47 SPEI units. WRF's resolution and setup were shown to be less important for the reproduction of the single drought event and overall drought characteristics. Depending on the specific goals of drought analyses, computation resources could therefore be saved, since a coarser resolution can provide similar results. Benefits of WRF were found in the correlation analysis. The greatest benefits were identified in the trend analysis: only WRF was able to reproduce the observed negative SPEI trends to a fairly high spatial accuracy, while the other regional climate models (RCMs) completely failed in this regard. This was mainly due to the WRF model settings, highlighting the importance of appropriate model configuration tailored to the target region. Our findings are especially relevant in the context of climate change studies, where the appropriate reproduction of trends is of high importance.</p

Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers.We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes.We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of ist capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3 km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3 km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities

Rain event detection in commercial microwave link attenuation data using convolutional neural networks

Quantitative precipitation estimation with commercial microwave links (CMLs) is a technique developed to supplement weather radar and rain gauge observations. It is exploiting the relation between the attenuation of CML signal levels and the integrated rain rate along a CML path. The opportunistic nature of this method requires a sophisticated data processing using robust methods. In this study we focus on the processing step of rain event detection in the signal level time series of the CMLs, which we treat as a binary classification problem. This processing step is particularly challenging, because even when there is no rain, the signal level can show large fluctuations similar to that during rainy periods. False classifications can have a high impact on falsely estimated rainfall amounts. We analyze the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN), which is trained to detect rainfall-specific attenuation patterns in CML signal levels, using data from 3904 CMLs in Germany. The CNN consists of a feature extraction and a classification part with, in total, 20 layers of neurons and 1.4×105 trainable parameters. With a structure inspired by the visual cortex of mammals, CNNs use local connections of neurons to recognize patterns independent of their location in the time series. We test the CNN\u27s ability to recognize attenuation patterns from CMLs and time periods outside the training data. Our CNN is trained on 4 months of data from 800 randomly selected CMLs and validated on 2 different months of data, once for all CMLs and once for the 3104 CMLs not included in the training. No CMLs are excluded from the analysis. As a reference data set, we use the gauge-adjusted radar product RADOLAN-RW provided by the German meteorological service (DWD). The model predictions and the reference data are compared on an hourly basis. Model performance is compared to a state-of-the-art reference method, which uses the rolling standard deviation of the CML signal level time series as a detection criteria. Our results show that within the analyzed period of April to September 2018, the CNN generalizes well to the validation CMLs and time periods. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis shows that the CNN is outperforming the reference method, detecting on average 76 % of all rainy and 97 % of all nonrainy periods. From all periods with a reference rain rate larger than 0.6 mm h−1, more than 90 % was detected. We also show that the improved event detection leads to a significant reduction of falsely estimated rainfall by up to 51 %. At the same time, the quality of the correctly estimated rainfall is kept at the same level in regards to the Pearson correlation with the radar rainfall. In conclusion, we find that CNNs are a robust and promising tool to detect rainfall-induced attenuation patterns in CML signal levels from a large CML data set covering all of Germany

A monostatic microwave transmission experiment for line integrated precipitation and humidity remote sensing

AbstractNear-surface water vapor and precipitation are central hydrometeorological observables which are still difficult to quantify accurately above the point scale. Both play an important role in modeling and remote sensing of the hydrologic cycle. We present details on the development of a new microwave transmission experiment that is capable of providing line integrated estimates of both humidity and precipitation near the surface. The system is located at a hydrometeorological test site (TERENO-prealpine) in Southern Germany. Path length is kept short at 660m to minimize the likelihood of different precipitation types and intensities along the path. It uses a monostatic configuration with a combined transmitter/receiver unit and a 70cm trihedral reflector. The transmitter/receiver unit simultaneously operates at 22.235GHz and 34.8GHz with a pulse repetition rate of 25kHz and alternating horizontal and vertical polarization, which enable the analysis of the impact of the changing drop size distribution on the rain rate retrieval. Due to the coherence and the high phase stability of the system, it allows for a sensitive observation of the propagation phase delay. Thereof, time series of line integrated refractivity can be determined. This proxy is then post-processed to absolute humidity and compared to station observations. We present the design of the system and show an analysis of selected periods for both, precipitation and humidity observations. The theoretically expected dependence of attenuation and differential attenuation on the DSD was reproduced with experimental data. A decreased performance was observed when using a fixed A–R power law. Humidity data derived from the phase delay measurement showed good agreement with in situ measurements

Evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis with WRF: A regional precipitation recycling study for West Africa

Regional precipitation recycling is the measure of the contribution of local evaporation E to local precipitation. This study provides a set of two methods developed in the Weather Research and Forecasting WRF model system for investigating regional precipitation recycling mechanisms: (1) tracking of tagged atmospheric water species originating from evaporation in a source region, ie E‐tagging, and (2) three‐dimensional budgets of total and tagged atmospheric water species. These methods are used to quantify the effect of return flow and nonwell vertical mixing neglected in the computation of the bulk precipitation recycling ratio. The developed algorithms are applied to a WRF simulation of the West African Monsoon 2003. The simulated region is characterized by vertical wind shear condition, i.e., southwesterlies in the low levels and easterlies in the mid‐levels, which favors return flow and nonwell vertical mixing. Regional precipitation recycling is investigated in 100 × 100 and 1000 × 1000 km2 areas. A prerequisite condition for evaporated water to contribute to the precipitation process in both areas is that it is lifted to the mid‐levels where hydrometeors are produced. In the 100 × 100 (1000 × 1000) km$^{2}$ area the bulk precipitation recycling ratio is 0.9 (7.3) %. Our budget analysis reveals that return flow and nonwell vertically mixed outflow increase this value by about +0.2 (2.9) and +0.2 (1.6) %, respectively, thus strengthening the well‐known scale‐dependency of regional precipitation recycling